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10/15/2004

Make Sure to Get Out The Vote

This story from Electoral-Vote.com basically shows what I've been saying all along. Forget the "suburban undecided" voters and concentrate on getting people who are traditionally Democrats to get registered and vote. This election is so winnable it is ridiculous, but people have to vote.
Below are some new national polls from Ohio University
Pollster: Ohio University
Ohio University
Dates: Oct. 3-13
Kerry: 50%
Bush: 44%
Pollster: Ohio University
Dates: Oct. 3-13
Kerry: 50%
Bush: 45%
Pollster: Ohio University
Dates: Oct. 3-13
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 48%
"Look strange? To understand the numbers better you have to understand the polling process. The first poll came from calling households at random and asking if the respondent was 18 or over and a resident of the United States. This filter resulted in telephone interviews with 1022 people. Among this group Kerry has a lead substantially outside the poll's 3% margin of error. After asking about who the respondent planned to vote for, the interviewer asked: "Are you registered to vote at your current residence?" It turns out 15% were not. Once they were removed from the data, we get line 2, the registered voters, where Kerry is still ahead outside the margin of error. Next question was: "Are you certain or almost certain to vote?" Counting only the people who said yes, we get line 3 in the table, what are often called "likely voters." In short, in the adult resident population at large, Kerry is way ahead, but among likely voters it is a statistical tie. For this reason, each party will mount a massive
Get-Out-The-Vote drive on election day to turn out their base. In an election as close as this one, the winner will probably be determined by which party does a better job. If you want your horse to win, be sure to vote and strongly urge all your friends, relatives, fellow students, coworkers, etc. to do so, too. Call them on the afternoon of election day to prod them if need be. Since supporting constitutional amendments seems to be "in" these days, I could support one saying that people who don't vote should be stripped of their right to complain about the government afterwards. I believe that Australia has a fine for not voting. This election is too important to sit out."

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